Democratic Candidate for President 2020 - 2 Electability

Dear Friends,

I am driven to write by the constant media reports and conversations about who is the most electable Democratic candidate for President.  Virtually daily there is some new article or analysis in the media attempting to define "electability".  Following are just a few that I have read lately:

"Nobody Knows Anything About 'Electability'" by Peter Beinart in the Atlantic (here)
"the electability trap" by Linda Hirshman in The Washington Post (here)
"The Problem With 'Electability'" by Perry Bacon, Je. at FiveThirtyEight (here)
"Opinion: The Real Electable Democrat is Kamala Harris" by Bakari Sellers at BuzzFeed.News (here)  [I am not supporting or opposing Kamala Harris, but I found the article interesting.]
"How to Choose the Most Electable Democrat in 2020" by Bill Scher at Politico (here)

There are three things that I want to highlight from all of the discussions about "electability".

First, who a person views as "electable" is phrased as others will not support that candidate because she is a woman, because she/he is a person of color, because he/she is too far left/right, etc.  Essentially what that person is saying is I'm not racist, sexist, etc. but the rest of the electorate is.  This approach essentially means that straight, white, Judaeo/Christian, upper class, male centrists are electable and others are not.

Second, often an electable candidate is defined as a candidate who can attract swing voters.  I am sure there are probably a few million swing voters, but the person to attract is the non-voter.  The percentage of eligible voters voting hit a high in the 2008 Presidential election with about 62% of the the eligible voters actually voting.  In the 2016 Presidential election 59.2% of eligible voters voted for President. In 2016 there were just about 231 million eligible voters which means that the three percentage point difference in the eligible voters that voted represented almost 7 million voters.
Elections are won by turning out the people who will vote for your candidate.  There is no doubt that if 62% of the voters had turned out in 2016 instead of the 59% that did, Hillary Clinton would be President now.
There are approximately 25 developed countries with higher voter turnout than the United States, with Belgium topping the list with 87% of its voting age population voting.  The United States has about 250,000,000 age eligible voters.  If 87% of those people voted in 2016, we would have had almost 81,000,000 more voters.  If a candidate can get 10 million of those people to the polls, that candidate will win.

Third, the Democratic establishment has been pushing "electable" candidates on us for years.  Since the 1976 election, three Democratic candidates have won the presidency and five Democratic candidates have lost the presidency when running for a first term.
The Democratic candidates that have won are:
Jimmy Carter - age 52 when ran, 4 years as a Georgia state senator and 4 years as the governor of Georgia
Bill Clinton - age 46 when ran, 2 years as the Attorney General of Arkansas and 11 years as governor of Arkansas
Barack Obama - age 47 when ran, 7 years as an Illinois state senator and 3 years as US Senator from Illinois
The Democratic candidates that lost are:
Walter Mondale - age 56 when ran, 4 years as Attorney General of Minnesota, 12 years as US Senator from Minnesota and 4 years as Vice President
Michael Dukakis - age 55 when ran, 8 years in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 12 years as governor of Massachusetts
Al Gore - age 52 when ran, 8 years a member of the House of Representatives, 8 years as US Senator from Tennessee and 8 years as Vice President
John Kerry - age 61 when ran, decorated Vietnam War veteran and 28 years as US Senator from Massachusetts
Hillary Clinton - age 69 when ran, 8 years as First Lady, 8 years as US Senator from New York and 4 years as Secretary of State (she was far and away the most experienced and qualified person to run for President probably forever)

What are the lessons from this data?
Democratic presidential candidates who are political outsiders win.  All of the losing candidates had at least 20 years of public service before running for President (if you count Hillary Clinton's time as First Lady).  Except for Dukakis, all had been US Senators for at least 8 years.
The oldest winner was 52 when he ran and the youngest loser was 52 when he ran.  Based on this sample younger candidates do much better.
Except for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, all are white men, and in that category four lost and two won.
I would categorize all of these candidates as to the right of center in the Democratic Party and in that category five lost and three won.
So from this data one could say that a younger candidate who has not been in public office for very long is the best bet.

Next time you talk about the electability of a candidate or you talk to someone else about it or you read/hear an analysis in the media, ask what do you really mean by electability.  Since the "experts" continually get it wrong about who is the most electable candidate, please do not rely on those "experts".  If an "expert" thought that Donald Trump was not electable and Hillary Clinton was, there is no reason for you to give that "expert's" opinion any weight in your decision making.

The most electable Democratic candidate is the one who can attract a lot of the nonvoters without losing too many of the traditional Democratic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton.  Simply holding on to those voters who voted for Hillary Clinton and adding a few swing voters will not even come close to assuring victory in the general election.

Thanks for reading and please comment,
The Unabashed Liberal

Villefranche-sur-mer 2019 - 11 Odds and Ends

Dear Friends,

We arrived home from Villefranche on Sunday and are trying valiantly to adjust.  In addition to the normal jet lag and cultural change, this year we are faced with a dramatic weather change.  While we were in Villefranche, Minneapolis was having an extremely cold and snowy winter, setting all kinds of records.  When we left Villefranche it was a beautiful sunny day with a slight breeze and about 60 degrees.  We we arrived in Minneapolis -

Here is Jane in circle in front of the entrance to our apartment building.  She looks much happier than she was.

In our last week in Villefranche, there were several things that I did not get a chance to write about so here are the odds and ends.

Flying Fire Fighters

Almost every winter we get a chance to see so fire fighting planes practice scooping up water from the bay to drop on fires.  This year there were actually a couple of days when they swooped overhead to pick up water because there were actual fires.  It was quite a sight.  From our apartment we could not actually see the plane as it scooped up the water, but we got some photos of the planes swooping in just over the roof tops.

In the photo below the plane is just about to scoop up water.  They don't stop or actually land they just scoop it up as they fly along.

Walk around Cap Martin

Jane and it decided we would try another walk from the book that gave us the walk above La Turbie.  This time the book told the truth.  The walk around Cap Martin was beautiful, without huge up and downs and with a smooth path.  It is also easily accessible.  We took the train to the stop at Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, just east of Monaco.  Despite some construction, the path was easy to find.

Here is a picture looking back at Monaco with Cap Ferrat in the background.

There were some spots where the cliffs fell rapidly to the sea from the path.  In the photo below, if you look closely you can see some paths as well as a small platform to swim from when the seas are calm.

There were some places that were not good for those with a fear of heights.  The ramp is about 3 feet wide and attached to a huge retaining wall.

The walk concludes when you reach Carnoles a neighborhood of Menton right on the water.  Even in the winter, there are restaurants available for a nice lunch.  We had lunch at a very nice restaurant called Le Fellini.  The menu of the day included the "salad bar", choice of three main courses, a drink and a coffee for 16 euros.  It was a great deal.  The salad bar was not like any American salad bar I have ever seen.

The picture is not very good, but it included roasted zucchini, roasted egg plant, roasted carrots, cabbage, green beans, red and yellow peppers, a tuna salad with peas, carrots and mayo, small pieces of pizza and a few other things.  Jane had the roasted chicken and I had the sword fish.  The drink turned out to be 1.5 glasses of wine each.  Anyway a great way to finish off a great walk.  We then got back on the train at the stop after the one where we had gotten off and had a short ride back to Villefranche.

Le Serre

There is a restaurant right in the middle of the old town that we just love.  It is very casual with a menu of pizzas as well as other regular items such as pastas, beef brioche, fish and salads. Each day there is a menu of the day featuring starters, main courses and desserts.  The full menu is only 18 euros, an incredible deal.

The best thing about it is the owner/chef Sylvie and her staff.  They are great at their jobs, but even more important they make you feel very welcome and make your entire experience wonderful.  

Pétanque

As you could have guessed from prior posts, I enjoy playing pétanque while in Villefranche.  Here I am with my teammates (one from Canada and one from Ireland) from the last match that I played before returning to Minneapolis.

The organizer of the pétanque matches is a John Paul, a resident of Villefranche (in the winter) and Maine (in the summer).  He is a wonderful person who welcomes all to play regardless of skill level.  His only reward is seeing everybody have a great time.  Jane and I had lunch with him before we left to which he wore the Minnesota t-shirt that we got him for his birthday.

One of the rules that John Paul has taught us is that if you lose a game 13 - 0, you have to run naked through the streets.  We are not sure that all of his rules are actually official pétanque rules.  When pétanque makes its Olympics debut in 2024, we will see what the actual rules are.  Anyway at lunch there was a rather unique statue which John Paul explained was a statue of Fanny.  If you win a pétanque match 13 - 0,  you get to touch Fanny's fanny.  You can see from the coloring of Fanny's fanny that lots of people must have won shutouts.

And so ends our latest stay in Villefranche.  We were sad to leave and even sadder to return to the cold and snow of Minnesota, but we know that we will return in September.

Thanks for reading and please comment,

The Unabashed Liberal

Villefranche-sur-mer 2019 - 10 La Turbie

Dear Friends,

Last Thursday, we had another great adventure.  We visited La Turbie, a town built 2,000 years ago by the Romans honoring Emperor Augustus.  The adventure actually started several days earlier when we decided to make the trip and to rent an electric car to do so.

In prior years we had used Auto Bleue to rent an electric car in Villefranche.  It was a car sharing service.  The cars are parked in Villefranche at charging stations.  You go online to book them and then you return them to the same parking place.  When I went online to book a car through Auto Bleue, I discovered that Auto Bleue had morphed into Renault Mobility.  I had to sign up all over again.  Fortunately this time I did not need to go to Nice, I could do it all online.

The instructions were very detailed but all in French.  With the help of my dictionary I was able to follow them.  Fill out the form with basic personal info.  Take a picture of your drivers' license both sides and your passport and take a selfie showing your face and your identification (in my case my passport) and then upload these photos.  While the selfie sounded rather bizarre, I followed the directions successfully.  Then of course, they wanted my credit card information which I was also able to provide them.

Unfortunately they then wanted my cell phone number.  I was doing all of this on my computer and for reasons that to this day escape me there was no format in which it would accept my cell phone number.  I decided to try to do all of this on my cell phone through their app.  I filled out the form, uploaded all the photos, gave them my credit card information and by a miracle it took my cell phone number without any complaint.  I submitted all of this and was told Renault Mobility would respond soon.

When they responded, they rejected my application.  They claimed that there was less than one year remaining on my drivers' license.  They were wrong, but of course there was no way to tell them that and it probably would not have done any good anyway.  So I changed the date of issuance (in Minnesota the issuance date is just the month and year but the form wanted the day also so I put in a new day).  Then a miracle occurred, they accepted my application.

I could then book a car online which I did for Thursday.  We asked a couple of friends to go with us.  The acknowledged reason for going to La Turbie was to take a walk called Le Circuit de la Forna.  The books describe it as an easy 6.8 km walk with only a 220 m change in elevation.  La Turbie is already on the top of a hill overlooking Monaco so the walk promises fabulous views.  Of course once we were going to La Turbie I made a reservation for us to have lunch at Le Café de la Fontaine, a wonderful restaurant in La Turbie.

Thursday morning arrived and the four of us meet at the car.  I opened the Renault Mobility app on my phone and followed the instructions.  I was quickly able to unlock the car by sending a signal to Renault.  The next problem was to unplug the car from the charger.  This step proved more difficult as there were two cards with chips and buttons to push.  Eventually I found the right one to unlock the electric cord.  I was faster at getting the car started.  I was also pretty quick at getting the GPS set to direct us to La Turbie.

The final step was to raise the triangle thing that saved the parking spot for our return.  I told Jane to get out of the car to raise the triangle after I had moved forward.  Just as I moved forward the triangle two spots ahead went up automatically.  It was only then that I noticed that we were in spot 1 but the app said that the car was in spot 3.  It was the right car because it was the right license plate number and it opened as directed.  What could possibly go wrong with a system that automatically raises a triangle to save a spot because the car started to move.  As my french tutor commented, "C'est un système infallible, comme le Titanic."  It is an infallible system like the Titanic.  Anyway we were off.

We arrived in La Turbie easily and without incident.  We found a parking place.  A very nice policeman gave us directions to the start of the trail, and we were off. We found the trailhead just where the policeman told us it would be.

We began the ascent which was not to be more than 220 m.  Several times we felt like we had already increased our elevation by more than 220 m, but we kept on going up.  We did, however, begin to see the amazing views.  Here are the three lovely women with whom I had the pleasure of walking.  You can see the snowcapped mountains in the background.

They insisted that I should be in a picture too so here I am with Jane.

From this point the trail continued its steep climb but also changed to slippery loose rocks so we went very carefully.  We were well rewarded as we approached the summit.  Here is a view of La Turbie.  The tall structure is what is left of the huge Trophee d'Auguste which was originally 49 m high but the statue of Emperor Augustus is no longer there so it is just 35 m high.

At the summit there is nice grassy area with a bench and a 360 degree view that is spectacular.  This pano does not do it justice.

Even though we had not completed the entire circuit, we decided to descend the way that we had come up.  It was great that we did.  The rocks had dried a little and some of the early crocuses had opened up as the day warmed up.

Since we hadn't walked the whole circuit, we were early for our lunch reservation but that was not a problem as it was market day in La Turbie.  We didn't buy anything special but we did get some fresh green beans which have been in short supply this winter.  We then enjoyed a great lunch for a couple of hours at Le Café de la Fontaine.  If you are ever in La Turbie, I highly recommend it.  Here is the sole.

And here is the Paris-Brest.  For those who do not know Paris-Brest, it is named after the famous bicycle race Paris-Brest-Paris.  Traditionally it is made from choux paste and a praline flavored cream.  In honor of the bicycle race, the pasty is supposed to have a hole in the middle so that it looks like a bicycle wheel.  In this case, they eliminated the hole, but the taste was delicious.

We then walked around the old town which is very clean and quaint.

As we were walking back to our car, we got a great view of Monaco.

We drove back to Villefranche, were able to lower the triangle by pushing one of the buttons on the key and park the car.  We figured out how to plug the car back in.  But the app would not let me end the rental because we had not put the right chips in the right slots.  There were two slots and two chips so we had quite a few combinations of front, back, side, side, slot, slot.  After I failed several times, Jane got it right on her first try.  The app agreed that the rental was completed.  There was just one more surprise.  When I reserved the car, the app said that the rental was going to be about 46 euros.  Either as a result of their desire to keep the true cost from me or my bad french, the actual cost was 90 euros.  We will not be using this car sharing service as often as I had thought.

We had a great day - learning how to do the car, seeing incredible views on our walk, eating a delicious meal, but most of all enjoying a beautiful day with great friends.

Thanks for reading and please comment,

The Unabashed Liberal